a.) Stick with your original choice.
The only reason Monty is making you this offer is because he know you've picked the right door.
.
b.) Switch to the remaining door.
Any genius knows it has a better chance of having the Grand Prize behind it than your door.
.
c.) It doesn't matter. The odds are the same for either door.
Two doors; one prize. The chances are 50:50. What could be simpler?
.
d.) Consult the pigeons.
Everybody knows birds are smarter than humans.
.
.
The correct answer is given in the Comments of this post. Alternatively, you can read the MSNBC article about it here.
Thursday, March 04, 2010
Thursday Riddle : The Monty Hall Problem
This is a riddle based on the old game show Let's Make A Deal. You're the lucky person who gets to try and win the Grand Prize, which is located behind either Door #1, Door #2, or Door #3. There are booby prizes behind the other two doors.
.
For the sake of this riddle, we'll assume you picked Door #1. The show's emcee, Monty Hall, now opens one of the two other doors (we'll assume here it was Door #2), which always contains one of the booby prizes. He now asks you whether you want to stick with your pick, or switch to the remaining door, which here is Door #3. Statistically speaking, what should you do?
.
a.) Stick with your original choice.
The only reason Monty is making you this offer is because he know you've picked the right door.
.
b.) Switch to the remaining door.
Any genius knows it has a better chance of having the Grand Prize behind it than your door.
.
c.) It doesn't matter. The odds are the same for either door.
Two doors; one prize. The chances are 50:50. What could be simpler?
.
d.) Consult the pigeons.
Everybody knows birds are smarter than humans.
.
.
The correct answer is given in the Comments of this post. Alternatively, you can read the MSNBC article about it here.
a.) Stick with your original choice.
The only reason Monty is making you this offer is because he know you've picked the right door.
.
b.) Switch to the remaining door.
Any genius knows it has a better chance of having the Grand Prize behind it than your door.
.
c.) It doesn't matter. The odds are the same for either door.
Two doors; one prize. The chances are 50:50. What could be simpler?
.
d.) Consult the pigeons.
Everybody knows birds are smarter than humans.
.
.
The correct answer is given in the Comments of this post. Alternatively, you can read the MSNBC article about it here.
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1 comment:
the correct answer is "b.". the remaining door has twice as good of a chance of containing the Grand Prize as your pick. for an explanation of this, see the MSNBC article.
half-credit for "d.", since the pigeons learned faster in the lab test than the humans did.
FWIW, even though i know the answer, i still have a tough time wrapping my brain around it. the odds may have been 1-in-3 to begin with, but they change when Monty opens the second Door.
but who am I to argue with Marilyn Vos Savant?
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